On September 16, the price was rejected by the $ 11,100 zone.
There are short-term weaknesses, but the long-term picture remains bullish.
It seems plausible that the price has started a new bullish impulse
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The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has been declining since its rejection by the area of $ 11 September 16 100.
That said, price is expected to reverse its trend shortly and generate another higher high.
Bitcoin clings to its rise
On September 16 , Bitcoin’s price hit a high of $ 11,100, located between the fibonacci levels 0.5 and 0.618 of the entire downward movement.
Interestingly, BTC did not break through the low of $ 11,112, dating back to August 25. In such a scenario, this would reject several possible accounts of bearish and longer-term waves, although this is unlikely.
Additionally, price has yet to pass the descending resistance line created from the two most recent lower highs.
Technical indicators are bullish, but have yet to confirm the start of a new uptrend. This would likely be confirmed by a move of the MACD into positive territory, a rise in the RSI above the 50 line, and / or a bullish cross within the Stochastic Oscillator.
On September 14, the price of Bitcoin began to slowly rise. This climb lasted two days, until the price reached a local high of $ 11,000. Throughout this period, there was considerable bearish divergence in the RSI like the MACD, and their trend had yet to be broken.
A modest decline has already occurred as a result of the divergence, and the MACD has started to recover from negative territory. This could suggest that the price will resume its upward movement soon.
Correction or upward movement?
So far, the most plausible wave count had an ongoing correction in BTC, which would still be in wave 4 (orange below) of a bearish five wave formation. Having said that, the length and shape of this wave now cast doubt on this formation, and indicates that it would be more plausible that the price has now started a bullish momentum.
In this case, BTC would have started a new upward movement on September 9 (in red below).
The easiest way to determine if this scenario is correct would be a return to the top of Sub-Wave 1 (in red below), located at $ 10,483. A decline in price to this area would invalidate not only the rising support line for waves 0-2 (in black) but also the wave 2 rule.
If price bounces near $ 10,500, that would almost certainly confirm that BTC will begin a further rise.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s price has started to show short-term weaknesses, which could lead to a drop towards $ 10,600. That said, it seems more plausible that BTC is in a new impetus, rather than a correction.